Catherine Rusoff
Florida is getting a lot of attention for its battles against abortion and showing broad support for abortion access in the state, although that hasn’t translated into making it a presidential battleground.
That’s because voters here classify Florida’s economy as mixed and the national economy so bad, with inflation and immigration having more of an impact on competition now.
Florida voters tend to think they will be better off financially with Donald Trump, who is comfortably leading his bid to govern the state for the third time in a row.
Impact of abortion
There is much support in Florida for abortion access, including the majority view that the current six-week ban is too strict. Women are even more likely than men to say this.
A majority of Florida voters would like abortion to be legal in most cases, and overwhelmingly so in at least some cases.
But in the presidential race, not all of this benefits President Biden – or completely harms his opponent, former President Trump.
Here’s why: First, although it is important, abortion is not seen as important as the economy and inflation to likely voters. In fact, this accompanies a number of other issues.
(Partly because it’s partisan: Democrats care a lot more than Republicans.)
Second, Trump has distanced himself somewhat on this issue, with many voters neither blaming nor giving him credit for overturning Roe. While there is relatively more blame than credit, especially from Democrats, it is less for independents and less for the general electorate.
So relatively few think Trump would try to pass a nationwide ban going forward.
So, even for those who want abortion to be legal, there is no consensus on what the implications of a Trump vote in this regard would be.
Biden, in turn, is seen as someone trying to legalize this everywhere.
Third, there are many Republicans and Trump voters who think, as do most Democrats, that abortion should be allowed, at least in some circumstances. In fact, very few want it to be illegal in all cases. This has long been true across the country.
Fourth, when it comes to turnout, infrequent voters are no more likely than regular voters to say that the issue of abortion motivates them to vote.
There is majority support for establishing a constitutional right to abortion in Florida. Although, as is often the case with referendums and amendments, there is a lot of uncertainty expressed regarding Amendment 4 and many people say they have not yet heard or read about it.
Right now, Democrats are more likely than Republicans and independents to report having heard of Amendment 4.
Voters, and women in particular, have concerns that extend to all reproductive health care if the amendment is not approved. Most voters think accessing health care will be more difficult, and women are especially likely to think so.
Do candidates have the mental and cognitive health to serve?
As we have seen nationally, Trump is seen as having the cognitive health to serve as president, more so than Biden.
Florida has many older voters, who are more likely to feel that only Trump is capable of serving –
But it’s young people who stand out here: they’re the age group most likely to think none of them can serve.
The measure of marijuana
Speaking of young people, they are supporting an amendment that would legalize marijuana, but it is finding great acceptance across all age groups under 65.
Key groups
Biden is faring worse with key parts of the Democratic coalition than he did in 2020, which partly explains why he is further behind today than he was four years ago.
One notable group is Hispanic voters — and economics explains a lot of that.
Most Hispanic voters in Florida think they would be worse off financially if Biden won.
DeSantis and other issues
After easily winning re-election two years ago, Florida voters are more divided over Governor Ron DeSantis today as he is moving into positive territory for approval among voters (he is slightly lower among Floridians in general).
But either way, he gets very strong support from the state’s Republicans, despite running against their preferred presidential candidate.
What also divides Floridians are perceptions of his efforts against things he considered “woke,” many of which gained national attention before his presidential campaign. This is divided between those who think it made Florida better or worse, and is predictably partisan.
Another state Republican, current Sen. Rick Scott, is comfortably ahead in a possible Senate race in November.
This CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted May 10-16, 2024, with a representative sample of 1,576 adults living in Florida. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past voting. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 points for the total sample and +/- 3.9 points for the sample of registered voters.
Antonio Salvanto
