Who will win U.S. Open 2024? Evaluating odds of Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, top of leaderboard

PINEHURST, NC – Seconds after his 67th shot of the day found the bottom of the 18th cup at Pinehurst No. 2, Bryson DeChambeau turned toward the wide infrastructure running up the left side of the green. He raised his arm and hand, fingers gripping a golf ball, and waited for the roars

They came, as they had all day, before the singles leader of the 124th U.S. Open threw his ball into the stands, to the approval of everyone who had stayed until dusk to watch golf’s greatest spectacle today. He had already given them everything else.

How did this happen? How did Bryson DeChambeau – strange, a little grumpy and very bombastic – become… the crowd favorite at the US Open? There is not enough time between now and your final round to fully and completely answer this question. (And frankly, at this point, it doesn’t really matter.)

What matters is that on Sunday, with his second US Open on the line and a player in his pairing (Frenchman Matthieu Pavon) that no one on the property will be rooting for (sorry, Matt), it will be as if the entire country is behind him. .

“It was amazing,” DeChambeau said of the love he received Saturday. “I can’t thank them enough. It was a blessing. Man, they got under my skin. It just gives me a boost in adrenaline and allows me to focus more on delivering for the fans, myself and my family. It just inspires me.” “

More important than the disparity in support favoring DeChambeau is the difference between his score and everyone else’s. After a sizzling back nine in which he made four approach shots within 15 feet, a double bogey on the par-4 16th undid some of his work. Then, of course, Bryson made 2 on the par-3 17th to claw back a stroke and open up a three-stroke lead over Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay and Pavon.

That three-stroke margin means a second major title for the Greatest Showman is a probability… but not a certainty.

So even though the Pinehurst crowd will… I can’t believe I’m saying this after the way Bryson was treated less than three years ago by golf fans – attempt to take the American golfer home on Sunday to a victory in his national championship, there will be a handful of candidates who will make things difficult for him.

Let’s take a look at the contenders who will try to unseat the even-odds favorite in DeChambeau, ranked starting with the most likely to catch him when they play at Pinehurst No. 2 on Sunday afternoon.

1. Rory McIlroy (-4): McIlroy is hitting the ball as well as ever. His driver remains the game’s greatest weapon, and he was shot for shot with DeChambeau off the tee on Saturday in the third round. It would be easy to look at the guy who was first from tee to green and 45th this week in putting and say: He just needs a few to pitch on Sunday and he’ll be right. But it’s actually a loose iron move coming home that McIlroy needs to fix to have a real chance.

Regardless, low-key Rory hasn’t had that many chances in the last 10 years to win majors, and this is probably one of his top three or four. At some point, numbers don’t matter, top 10 doesn’t matter, ball speed doesn’t matter. At some point, none of that matters. He just needs to put himself in the mix on the last nine holes and get the job done. That’s what champions do, and he’s been one of the great champions over the last two decades. Now he just needs the main title to prove it. Odds: 3-1

2.Patrick Cantlay (-4): Even after turning 65 on Thursday, Cantlay didn’t look like a legitimate threat to win this tournament. Why? He’s been shaky off the tee, and that’s a difficult category to overcome over 72 holes of play. However, he continues to persist, hanging around. And if a player of his caliber can reach the bottom nine on Sunday within a point or two of the lead, anything could happen. After Cantlay chased down McIlroy in the Ryder Cup and made shot after shot in big moments, it changed the way he was viewed as a competitor. What he should watch for on Sunday is whether he will continue to drive offline. In that case, he could run into some bad wiregrass breaks, which could lead to a double or worse that will ruin his chances. Odds: 15/2

3. Ludvig Aberg (-2): A hole ended Åberg’s US Open chances when he made triple bogey on the short par-4 13th on Saturday. Although he is first on this field in hitting the ball, it is his short game that has proven to be his deficiency. Still, he resisted. It will probably take something very special from Åberg, but he is the kind of talent who could absolutely shoot 66 and make history as the first US Open player to win on his debut in 111 years. Odds: 16-1

4.Hideki Matsuyama (-2): No one is talking about Matsuyama, which is probably good for him. After his round of 66 on Friday, he carded a par 70 on Saturday to move into the top six. He is currently in the top 10 in this field in approach play and is playing in a position where he could post up with a heater back nine and hope everyone piles in behind him. Matsuyama is not out of this, and that Augusta National-Pinehurst double major would be spectacular. Odds: 18-1

5.Mathieu Pavon (-4): I’m not necessarily a believer, but Pavon has been around admirably this week. It’s impossible to leave him off this list, but it’s a little worrying that he’s #1 in the field in placement. Maybe this is sustainable, but it could easily be undone on Sunday afternoon. Odds: 16-1

Rick Gehman and Greg DuCharme recap Saturday at the 2024 US Open at Pinehurst No. 2. Follow along and listen to The First Cut at Apple Podcasts It is Spotify.